‘Normalising’ politics in Northern Ireland?

I suspect those who talk about the ‘normalisation’ of NI politics mean one of two things by it (i) politics like England – in particular, the ability to vote for the British Labour Party (ii) the end of sectarian, or should I say nationalist, politics.

But let’s think about the use of the word ‘normal’ in this context. The only people who have no problem with the term are statisticians and religious fanatics. The rest of us realise that normality is a very elastic concept. On the one hand, normal politics in NI is what we’ve got at the moment: it’s normal for us, and it has evolved in the way it has in response to local conditions. On the other hand, if party political options do change in the next five years or so, there’s no particular reason to assume that the new pattern will be the same as anywhere else, because our society isn’t. As for the departure of sectarian/ nationalist politics, dream on. Both Irish and UK nationalism will continue to be part of NI’s political landscape for a long time to come. The questions are: how big a part and which other political ideologies will be competing.

Indeed, the possibility of change may be getting closer as cracks begin to appear in the UUP and the SDLP after the Assembly elections. The issues in the UUP are relatively straightforward. David Trimble has joined the Tories and called for all the main UK parties to contest elections in NI. Speculation that he would do this goes back some years. Following his example, there’s no ideological reason why the UUP shouldn’t merge with the Tories, who of course already organise in NI. A few individual members may prefer to join the British Labour Party, which would increase pressure on them to allow their NI members to stand for election here.

The future of the SDLP raises more complex questions. If SDLP members have the chance to choose between nationalism and socialism then the majority will choose nationalism and merge with Fianna Fáil, which again is not a new idea. This despite Irish Labour assiduously cultivating the connection over the years, whilst recently also allowing membership of their own party in the North (I declare an interest here).

A Fianna Fáil/ SDLP merger presents two problems: (i) the continuation of two Irish nationalist parties competing for votes in NI’s crowded electoral marketplace, and unlike the Tories/UUP not really being able to expand the range of support (ii) the departure of the party which still, amazingly, is the official Socialist International member for NI, leaving Irish and British Labour to negotiate over who should take their place when neither party headquarters appears keen to allow their local members to stand for election.

I could go on, and no doubt will do in future posts. But for now I’ll end with my predictions for the choices available to the NI electorate in five years’ time:

· DUP: Still here, still the same
· Tories, including merged UUP
· Alliance: perhaps renamed Liberal Alliance or suchlike to increase the profile of their link with the British Liberal Democrats, and perhaps a link with the Southern party - Fine Gael?
· Some kind of Labour representation. This is the big unknown. Either British Labour, Irish Labour or a pragmatic mix of the two in local pacts. There are huge problems with this and we could still end up with neither; perhaps unofficial Labour people standing instead but definitely not a separate NI Labour Party: been there, done that.
· Greens: with strong links to British and Irish Green parties.
· Fianna Fáil, incorporating the SDLP.
· Sinn Féin: Still here, still the same.

There are of course other aspects of political change to consider, such as the nature of the electoral system, whether a far right party will establish a significant presence here (unlikely, IMO), how well or badly particular parties will work together in enforced or voluntary coalitions, and what these parties would actually do if elected.

So, interesting times ahead.