Fianna Fáil and t’North
There’s been a lot of comment over the past few days about the announcement that Fianna Fáil is to set up a committee to examine the possibility of organising in Northern Ireland. There has been particular interest in the implications for the SDLP, especially after Mark Durkan’s description of the move as a ‘positive development’ and his refusal to rule out a merger of the two parties.
It’s interesting that the general view has been to welcome the initiative and to predict an eventual merger between Fianna Fáil and the SDLP. But I wonder if all this optimism is a little premature.
Rumours of Fianna Fáil’s ambitions regarding the North have been around for a few years now, but although there are some members in Derry, nothing substantial has come of it. The current initiative is only to examine the options available, which might include closer links with a Northern party - obviously the SDLP. Standing for Westminster elections has already been ruled out, although whether this is due to republican principles or fear of offending Gordon Brown is debateable.
But the real puzzle is why on earth Fianna Fáil would want to consider coming North at all. Reasons might include:
· To damage Sinn Féin: It’s in Fianna Fáil’s interests to annihilate Sinn Féin in the South, which they are well on the way to doing. But why pursue them across the border? It would be far more difficult to take votes away from SF up here than it has been in the South, given different historical allegiances and the more impressive performances of SF politicians.
· To shore up the SDLP: Fianna Fáil in partnership with the SDLP or as a merged party would create a more powerful nationalist party in terms of resources and would position the new party or alliance as a 32-county entity, all of which could increase SDLP support. But against that is the question of whether Northern voters would not only defect from SF (see above) but would vote for a party with a history, real or alleged, of corruption and nepotism at local and national level.
· To deflect attention from the Mahon Tribunal: This is unlikely, as Southern voters don’t care about the North.
· To put republican principles into practice: Fianna Fáil is a deeply pragmatic party and would not act out of principle if they would lose votes or influence as a result. One of the most puzzling aspects of this move is the detrimental impact it could have on the relationship between the Irish and UK governments.
I’ve predicted before that Fianna Fáil and the SDLP will merge eventually, and I still think this will happen. But the SDLP is not yet in terminal decline, and the question of how a closer working relationship would benefit Fianna Fáil has still not been answered to my satisfaction.
In terms of the wider restructuring of NI politics, the announcement does make it a lot easier for Irish Labour’s Northern members to make their case to stand for elections to local councils, which they will do at the Wexford conference in November. Those who have argued against such a move due to the need to remain loyal to the SDLP must be feeling a bit shafted this week.



